The race of Italian exports is halted, the latest Istat data just published tell the tale, which find confirmation in the MECS-Ucima Study Center's member sample surveys.

It is a slight downturn, a -0.3 percent overall for Italian exports over the twelve months of 2022, which compares with a growth that came close to 4 percent in the previous year and is the result of a negative first half of the year and a recovery that has been strengthening from the summer onward.

An upward dynamic that, according to forecasts in the new edition of the Cube, will also be evident in 2023 and in the medium term. The newly published edition of the econometric model developed by Mecs Study Center predicts an average annual growth to 2026 of +2.4 percent globally, but in particular with a 4.5 percent increase in North America, an area that, also looking at the 2022 results photographed by Istat, shows good performance: +5.2 percent, a decidedly positive trend compared to global data, but down from the previous year.

The slowdown of Italian exports in the last year is determined in the first place by the non-EU area (-15.9% in 2021), due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, an area that will also maintain the negative sign in the coming years according to the Cube Mecs forecast. Also affecting the 2022 result of Italian exports was the weak European demand for packaging machinery (-3.1% according to ISTAT data), while it is expected to recover between now and 2026 although at rates below 3% per year.

Asia, which remains the most important market in terms of size, is expected to return to growth after the stop recorded by Istat in 2022 (-0.2%), but at a pace that is about half the world average. Central and South America, which was the market with the highest growth rate in 2022 (+19.2%), will continue to expand, but Italian manufacturers will have to make do with an export dynamic that is more than one percentage point lower than its competitor.