GDP. The growth gap between Italy and Spain is widening

Spain's economy will grow by 7 tenths more this year (from 5 percent to 5.7 percent) and by 8 tenths in 2022 (from 4 percent to 4.8 percent): the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised upward its estimates for the Iberian country. While for Italy, the Paris-based organization bills a rebound of 4.1 percent this year (0.2 percentage points less than the December Economic outlook) and +4 percent for 2022.

Performances, for both fierce players in the Mediterranean ceramic market, place them above the average growth of the Eurozone (+3.9% this year and +3.8% in 2022) and well above the trend of the German manufacturing locomotive (Germany's GDP is estimated at +3% this year and +3.7%, in 2022) but that also confirm the widening of the competitive gap between Italy and Spain at the system-country level.

The most optimistic projection drawn by the Parisian institute shows a recovery of GDP to 2022 to pre-Covid levels for Spain. The Bank of Spain has also improved its economic forecast from its last estimates in September, predicting a smaller decline in GDP this year and a good recovery in 2022.

Spanish resilience and the advance of China (which even Covid has not been able to bring into the negative ground) also threaten to challenge the leadership of the Italian ceramic industry in international markets. The "Made in Italy," thanks to a price per square meter of exported tiles of more than 13.6 euros versus the 6.8 euros of Spanish ceramics and the 5.3 euros of Chinese ceramics, had so far managed to hold firm as the world's leading exporter by value (see the latest "World production and consumption of ceramic tile" report). But the gap is getting thinner and thinner, and if the growth rates on very different scales recorded over the past decade are confirmed in these last quarters and the coming quarters, Italy will have to relinquish the title.